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Thread: Where did DF27 originate? and when and how did it expand?

  1. #391
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    Quote Originally Posted by MitchellSince1893 View Post
    Updated chart and associated map
    Because they didn't have enough samples on their own, I combined, Belarus and Ukraine, and Austria, Hungary, Czech Rep, and Slovakia (see bottom of chart).

    In some cases, percentage wise there really isn't much of a difference between the two branches so the color difference isn't that meaningful.

    Attachment 10440Attachment 10441
    A higher participation rate can create the illusion of a higher percentage of a subclade compared to other countries. As you can see from your table, England has the single highest number of participants and you are using the participation rate for your percentages even the though population of England is lower than some countries with a higher rate of DF27 such as Italy, Germany, and France. This is what both I and razyn have been talking about but using different perspectives and points of interest. I can agree with him that Europe, outside of the Isles, Iberia, Latin America, and even outside of France in some cases is under-represented (but not that 1000 Genomes is causing an over-representation of Iberia and Latin America. I'm not trying to go back into that discussion here. I am just stating how our points differed that discussion in case this was misunderstood.) I also agree, as I have stated several times in several threads, that where a subclade pooled is not proof of the source so using these maps are not for finding the definite source regardless of how accurate the maps become. What is needed is not just one but several high quality ancient specimens, with accurate reliable RC dates and isotope testing, of people that directly descend from DF27 so the Y-DNA, autosomal DNA, RC dates, and isotopes can be compared. The expected Bell Beaker study will hopefully provide some.

    Anyway, if you were to make a map of the Busby et al. samples then you would see a much different layout in your map of Europe of presumed DF27 which is labeled as R-S116(xS145,S28) in the Busby table. One problem with the table is that some sample groups from the exact same country show 0% R-S116(xS145,S28) but some show up to 2.2% or even as high as 5.7% for Ukraine. It is hard to tell which percentage is more accurate without hundreds of NGS samples from each country. Keep in mind that the Busby percentages are compared to all haplogroups even though they don't specify the non-R1b haplogroups.

    Another way to find percentages is to use the YFull data since they include all haplogroups albeit the surnames aren't shown and therefore can't be culled. Even so, as long as there are enough samples, there isn't going to be a 10% or more difference just because of that. There seem to be so many singletons that it should be a non-issue. Here we also run into the problem of an under-representation of samples from countries outside of the Isles, Iberia, and Latin America this time including France.


    YFull Percentages.PNG

    Something that we can see from both your table and my table is that Z195 and DF27xZ195 (ZZ12) is within 5% of each other in all of the countries when there are sufficient samples.

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  3. #392
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    I don't see any good reason to doubt that SUFG001 is Z214. He has two or more positive hits for a whole string of its upstream SNPs. But I also have no idea where he's from; could be Bilbao, for all I know. Or Kiev.

    The SNP M12124, that SUFG001 shares with RISE560 (dug up in Augsburg), is a real SNP. If it recurs, nobody seems yet to have logged its recurrence (e.g. in another haplogroup). So, if you really, really want YFull to be right about the age of Z214; or for the Augsburg Bell Beaker guy to be refluxing eastward from some already well diversified, Iberian DF27 population -- it is possible to cling to those beliefs. We lack unambiguous aDNA that might be able to prove it, one way or the other.

    To me, the DF27 tree appears to branch more fully as it moves from east to west. It's possible that YFull's SNP-count method of dating is still a bit flawed. And it's possible that a youthful Z214 is still on his way west (for the first time) in RISE560 -- whose tribe has yet to give birth to the first M153. I'm not arguing for that; I'm just asserting it as a possible interpretation of the minuscule (if it's even real) available DF27 data from aDNA. I do think it should be coupled with U152 (because of their shared parent ZZ11); and the minuscule sample of that shows about the same thing. It's not much, in either case, but it's the same little hint about them both.
    Last edited by razyn; 07-25-2016 at 03:28 PM.

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  5. #393
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    Quote Originally Posted by Webb View Post
    The extra exclamation points were used as a stressor.
    It stressed something different than what I had been stating.

    Quote Originally Posted by Webb View Post
    In my opinion you use testing bias as a shield, when it suites your argument.
    LOL

    Quote Originally Posted by Webb View Post
    So I am actually going to use your argument in regards to M153. That is why it is relevant to me and not really off track. If we assume your testing bias is correct, which I don't believe it is as drastic as you say it is, but if we assume it is, then we can say that M153 is specific to a region, can we not? There are no M153 samples outside of the Pyrenees in the FTDNA project or in the 1000 genome project. And with such a testing bias towards the British Iles we should find M153, but we do not. We find other North/South cluster snp's upstream of M153. M153 was formed around 2400 ybp according to Yfull, so because of the strong presence in the Pyrenees and little outside of this area, I would think it safe to assume it was probably formed very close to this region. So this, to me is a good place to start with the North/South cluster for date and region.
    There are M153 samples from outside the Pyrenees. It doesn't matter though. Pooling of a specific subclade can easily mean that it prospered there. That is what happened with M153. Even so, M153 is just a small percent of DF27 even in the Basque region. See http://www.fsigeneticssup.com/articl...174-8/fulltext where it shows it to be 6.55% of the Autochthonous Basques and DF27 is 70.74% of the Autochthonous Basques. It could have started there but it would be because an upstream SNP from M153 but downstream from DF27, made it's there way first.

    Quote Originally Posted by Webb View Post
    You claim that snp region is not proof of when, but have you informed everyone at the L21 forum page of this? I believe there are quite a few threads about this very subject. Many snp's found in the isles are not found on the continent, therefore, assuming they were formed in the isles.
    L21 is also found in the Czech Republic, Croatia, and many other places. L21 was likely to have started in the continent also just like DF27.

    None of what you have just written refutes that there is a participation bias. There was even another thread dedicated to the participation bias for people with ancestry from the Isles. Neither does anything that you have written point to a pooling of DNA being close to the point of origin. Although with U152 being between DF27 and U106 territory it makes one wonder if it wasn't in that area that P312 first came about and spread in all directions. But that is far from provable at this point.

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    Quote Originally Posted by razyn View Post
    I don't see any good reason to doubt that SUFG001 is Z214. He has two or more positive hits for a whole string of its upstream SNPs. But I also have no idea where he's from; could be Bilbao, for all I know. Or Kiev.

    The SNP M12124, that SUFG001 shares with RISE560 (dug up in Augsburg), is a real SNP. If it recurs, nobody seems yet to have logged its recurrence (e.g. in another haplogroup). So, if you really, really want YFull to be right about the age of Z214; or for the Augsburg Bell Beaker guy to be refluxing eastward from some already well diversified, Iberian DF27 population -- it is possible to cling to those beliefs. We lack unambiguous aDNA that might be able to prove it, one way or the other.

    To me, the DF27 tree appears to branch more fully as it moves from east to west. It's possible that YFull's SNP-count method of dating is still a bit flawed. And it's possible that a youthful Z214 is still on his way west (for the first time) in RISE560 -- whose tribe has yet to give birth to the first M153. I'm not arguing for that; I'm just asserting it as a possible interpretation of the minuscule (if it's even real) available DF27 data from aDNA. I do think it should be coupled with U152 (because of their shared parent ZZ11); and the minuscule sample of that shows about the same thing. It's not much, in either case, but it's the same little hint about them both.
    I understand your thoughts. Some people are pushing P312 from the west, and others from the East. While I think M269 did move from the East towards the west, I like the birth of P312 somewhere along the Danube. As far west as Germany, as far east as Hungary. Maybe. My thought is that while eastern Europe is under tested, will we eventually see Z214 outside of Iberia/Pyrenees in modern populations? Did it move west lock, stock, and barrel?

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    if there was an agreed SNP dating for P312 this would narrow the options down. It could even rule out some areas and cultures as origin point/culture of P312. I havent seen much further chewing over this recently

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    Quote Originally Posted by alan View Post
    if there was an agreed SNP dating for P312 this would narrow the options down. It could even rule out some areas and cultures as origin point/culture of P312. I havent seen much further chewing over this recently
    At present Yfull is using 353 samples to date P312. Note: Yfull doesn't use the average of all samples, but rather the average of all branches, which works out to 4317 ybp.

    *R-DF27* 4630
    *R-U152* 4706
    *R-DF19* 5660
    *R-Z2244* 4813
    *R-L21* 5178
    *R-DF99* 4489
    *R-Y18209* 5273
    *YF02390* 4976
    *YF02891* 3495
    *YF05772* 3880
    *YF02876* 4211
    *YF06226* 4021
    *YF06077* 4042
    *YF04807* 2948
    *YF03957* 3607
    *YF04539* 3716
    *YF02861* 4994
    *YF04850* 3779
    *YF06006* 3892
    *YF02766* 4442
    *YF02744* 4385
    *YF03995* 2954
    *YF05889* 6643
    *YF05176* 3379
    *YF02879* 3818



    But the ones in bold above are singletons (one sample with no matches below P312), which IMO may be skewing the numbers.

    Looking at the Big 3, (U152, DF27, and L21), we get a range of 4630 to 5178 ybp (3228 - 2680 BC) for P312, with an average of 4838 ybp (2888 BC)

    FWIW almost 1/4 of the 353 samples (78 samples) date P312 between 4642 and 5072 ybp (3122- 2692 BC)...see far left column in chart below.

    The average of all samples being 4871 ybp (2921 BC) and the median being 4828 ybp (2878 BC).


    P312-Yfull.png

    Thus ~2900 BC give or take a couple hundred years would be my guess on the age of P312
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  11. #397
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    Quote Originally Posted by MitchellSince1893 View Post
    At present Yfull is using 353 samples to date P312. Note: Yfull doesn't use the average of all samples, but rather the average of all branches, which works out to 4317 ybp.

    *R-DF27* 4630
    *R-U152* 4706
    *R-DF19* 5660
    *R-Z2244* 4813
    *R-L21* 5178
    *R-DF99* 4489
    *R-Y18209* 5273
    *YF02390* 4976
    *YF02891* 3495
    *YF05772* 3880
    *YF02876* 4211
    *YF06226* 4021
    *YF06077* 4042
    *YF04807* 2948
    *YF03957* 3607
    *YF04539* 3716
    *YF02861* 4994
    *YF04850* 3779
    *YF06006* 3892
    *YF02766* 4442
    *YF02744* 4385
    *YF03995* 2954
    *YF05889* 6643
    *YF05176* 3379
    *YF02879* 3818



    But the ones in bold above are singletons (one sample with no matches below P312), which IMO may be skewing the numbers.

    Looking at the Big 3, (U152, DF27, and L21), we get a range of 4630 to 5178 ybp (3228 - 2680 BC) for P312, with an average of 4838 ybp (2888 BC)

    FWIW almost 1/4 of the 353 samples (78 samples) date P312 between 4642 and 5072 ybp (3122- 2692 BC)...see far left column in chart below.

    The average of all samples being 4871 ybp (2921 BC) and the median being 4828 ybp (2878 BC).


    P312-Yfull.png

    Thus ~2900 BC give or take a couple hundred years would be my guess on the age of P312
    If 2900BC or younger was literally the date that would make it impossible for P312 to have arrived at the start of the Iberian copper age c. 3100BC. Its too close to call with so much wriggle room and confidence intervals but on balance it seems likely P312 is a bit too young to have arrived in Iberia with the pre-beaker copper age. At the other end of Europe P312's age is similar to the wave of Yamnaya into east-central Europe.

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  13. #398
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    Quote Originally Posted by razyn View Post
    I do think it [the earliest DF27] should be coupled with U152 (because of their shared parent ZZ11); and the minuscule sample of that shows about the same thing. It's not much, in either case, but it's the same little hint about them both.
    In that regard, I should link today's discovery by Alex Williamson of a potential DF27 signal in the confirmed ZZ11+ aDNA sample I0806, from Quedlinburg, Germany in a Bell Beaker burial of the 2400-2100 BC period (with some Corded Ware grave goods associated).
    http://www.anthrogenica.com/showthre...l=1#post185392

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    "... potential DF27 signal in the confirmed ZZ11+ aDNA sample I0806, from Quedlinburg, Germany in a Bell Beaker burial..."

    OK! Now we're German for a while. No more matador?

    edit: I ordered a Family Finder while it was on sale for $69. I'm kind of prepared for the results this time; I wasn't at the other company I used. It came back with a whole lot of hits in South America, I had Native American listed in my results. But there were only one or two hits in North America, and not all of them were bright green (that company used a different map than FTDNA. They had dots for matches). If I was NA then I'd have an equal amount of North American hits, but I didn't and now with my Z2573 a good guess is that those matches are from colonial interbreeding.

    I imagine that's the same for the North Africa hits, too.

    I've been reading up on that. My hits in Australia and South Africa are from R1b carriers spreading their lineage with the natives, the South Africa match was said to be European, too. So when my FTDNA map comes in, I bet I'll have globes or blobs (whatever those colored splats are) just about all over.

    I suppose it'll show me just how far away I am from my R-Z2573. I still say the point of a person's origins is more important to who he is than the autosomal tests we're offered now. Those just cover the last 300-500 years, and in my case that leaves out maybe 34,500 years of ancestry in my mtDNA H11a, and around 4,300 years in my y-DNA haplogroup. When you see these people say that an autosomal test gives you a better estimate of who you are ethnically, they entirely omit the heritage that the present autosomal tests don't catch. My opinion on that, for what it's worth, is that there's a lot of room for improvement in autosomals.
    Last edited by curiousII; 09-09-2016 at 10:41 PM.
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  16. #400
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    This thread has been running nearly 2 1/2 years, normally discussing its actual topic: where did DF27 originate? Within the past week a major discovery relevant to that topic has been made, and although discussion of that has been minimal thus far, it should be of primary interest here if anywhere. Therefore I don't want to leave, as the latest post on this thread, a digression about autosomal DNA.

    One pertinent fact that gets skipped over by people who haven't heard about it (and that includes most people) is that DF27 is no longer immediately below P312 -- if one places any credence in the additional branching points, caused by SNPs that for one reason or another don't get onto everybody's version of the Y haplotree.* In this version from http://www.ytree.net/ the sequence is R1b-P312/S116 > Z40481 > ZZ11 > DF27/S250. That matters, because every time there is a branching point, there is the possibility that the branches (at first individual men, but eventually their whole lineage) will go their separate ways. Some branches will flourish, some will die out. In this case the DF27 branch (three levels below P312) has flourished quite prominently in the parts of Europe that are shaded most heavily (representing high percentage in the present, tested male population) on haplogroup "heat maps" of the Eupedia type. These maps are not drawn with the aim of deceiving, but what they show has taken a long time (in the case of DF27, roughly 4,500 years) to develop; they are not maps of haplogroup origin. Anyway, have a look at Alex Williamson's version of the R1b-P312 tree. Hint: we DF27 people, and our brother clade U152, are somewhere in the lower left of this partial screen shot (click to enlarge):
    Screen Shot 2016-09-14 at 8.45.53 AM.png
    Returning to the significance of this week's discovery that ancient DNA sample I0806 is ZZ11+ and DF27+, I posted about that yesterday morning on the "Celtic from the West" thread here. I keep cross-referencing these threads in the hope that they will be seen by a variety of people whose particular interest may be from a different perspective (archaeology, linguistics, or other fields besides genetic genealogy, that may be informed by one another's news).
    http://www.anthrogenica.com/showthre...l=1#post186429

    *ZZ11 has had a good bit of discussion by now, perhaps more of it on U152 than on DF27 threads. The less familiar level marked by Z40481 has had little discussion or impact so far, most of it here: http://www.anthrogenica.com/showthre...l=1#post156214
    Last edited by razyn; 09-18-2016 at 07:20 PM. Reason: Added the asterisk and footnote about Z40481.

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