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Thread: Bell Beakers, Gimbutas and R1b

  1. #3821
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    Quote Originally Posted by R.Rocca View Post
    How is one supposed to create a frequency map of DF19 if it hasn't been tested for in an unbiased way?
    I'll be honest, I have no idea what brought the other haplogroup maps into existence. Did DF19 not show up at all in whatever tests their data originated?
    R1b (aka M343) > M269 > L23 > L51 > L11 > P312 > DF19 > DF88 > FGC11833 > S4281 > S4268 > Z17112 (S17075-, L644-)

    Archaeological cousin: 6DRIF-23 of Driffield Terrace Roman Cemetery, York (Z17112+, S17075+, L644-)

    Known ancestors: Francis Cooke (I-M223/I2a2a) b. 1583; John Wing (U106) b. 1584; Richard Warren (M269Hidden Content ) b.c. 1578; Elizabeth Walker (Warren) (H1j mtDNA) b. 1583; John Mead b.c. 1634 (I2a1/P37.2)

  2. #3822
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dewsloth View Post
    His maps still ignore DF19, and his R1b tree incorrectly shows DF19 under Z40481 - unless someone has discovered something I don't know about.
    Tangent: I just now looked more carefully at your avatar and laughed. I get it.

    Not too much of a tangent as it directly relates to this thread.
    Last edited by MitchellSince1893; 04-20-2017 at 04:57 PM.
    Genetic info
     
    U152>L2>Z49>Z142>Z12222>FGC12378>FGC12384. Yfull YF01489. YSEARCH 2PJVS.
    Earliest Known Paternal Ancestor: Edward Leopold Mitchell (NPE), b 1893, London, England

    Ancestry: English=37% Scot/Ulster-Scot=27% Welsh=14% Irish=3% German=14% Scandinavian=3% India=1% French & Dutch=1%

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  4. #3823
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dewsloth View Post
    I'll be honest, I have no idea what brought the other haplogroup maps into existence. Did DF19 not show up at all in whatever tests their data originated?
    The maps are based primarily on published academic studies of Europe. That I now of, DF19 has only been academically published for Iberia, where zero was found. The Genome of the Netherlands project posted Y-SNP counts (and then retracted the data a few days later). That was many years ago. DF19 was only 2% of 500 males tested, and all were also DF88+.
    Paternal: R1b-U152+ L2+ ZZ48+ FGC10543+, Pietro della Rocca, b. 1559, Agira, Sicily, Italy
    Maternal: Haplogroup H4a1-T152C!, Maria Coto, b. ~1864, Asturias, Spain
    Mother's Paternal: Haplogroup J1+ FGC4745/FGC4766+ PF5019+, Gerardo Caprio, b. 1879, Caposele, Avellino, Campania, Italy
    Father's Maternal: Haplogroup T2b-C150T, Francisca Santa Cruz, b.1916, Garganchon, Burgos, Spain

    Avatar: Raetian bronze votive, Fritzens-Sanzeno Culture VI-V c. BC, Trentino-Alto Adige/Südtirol, Italy

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  6. #3824
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    Quote Originally Posted by Heber View Post
    Maciamo has updated his maps:

    "I have reworked, corrected and improved most of the prehistoric migration maps on Eupedia. I have also split the map for the 4000-3000 BCE period into two new maps: 4000-3500 BCE and 3500-3000 BCE.

    (If you have any of seen maps on Eupedia recently, please make sure that you clear your browser cache to see the changes)."

    http://www.eupedia.com/europe/neolit...rope_map.shtml

    #history #archeology #genetics #anthropology #maps
    I see Maciamo does not show R1b going along the north side of the Carpathians at all. His only maps/directions for R1b take the Danube route and does not participant in Corded Ware until the timeframe of the fusion/fission when Corded Wares disintegrates/fractures into other things.

    I don't know about that, but that appears to be his position.

  7. #3825
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    Disregard
    Last edited by MitchellSince1893; 04-20-2017 at 07:12 PM.

  8. #3826
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    Quote Originally Posted by R.Rocca View Post
    The maps are based primarily on published academic studies of Europe. That I now of, DF19 has only been academically published for Iberia, where zero was found. The Genome of the Netherlands project posted Y-SNP counts (and then retracted the data a few days later). That was many years ago. DF19 was only 2% of 500 males tested, and all were also DF88+.
    DF99 may be a better diagnostic tracker than I thought.

    Let us set ZZ11 and Z40481 aside as counters for SNP based age estimates. YFull would not include them and I don't know if anyone would. I'm not saying they are useless as they indicate closeness in relationships between major subclades of P312, but let's not confuse age/generation estimates by including them.

    DF99 has only one equivalent so it's MRCA is quite old, in the same ballgame of U152's and DF27's MRCAs. U152 and DF27 have zero equivalents. We can hypothesize with some legitimacy that the MRCAs for P312, U152, DF27 and DF99 all lived within a few generations of each other. This means their origins could be close geographically. That's a little more iffy because the Bell Beakers were so mobile.

    I don't think there are any unbiased frequency studies of DF99. You can eyeball it on the project screens but we know that will be biased. There is quite a bit of Germany compared to the Isles so given the testing penetration rates I think we have to take Germany seriously. We DF99 in Sweden but just one or two that I noticed.

    https://www.familytreedna.com/public...frame=yresults

    However, we also see a Spain and Italy. I wasn't really expecting that. Better yet, go to the Big tree for DF99. It has turned up in a couple of academic studies. We see Portugal, Italy, Peru and Poland.

    This is NOT the kind of thing you see with L21.

    Again, not everyone agrees with me but I will classify DF99 in my own mind similar to DF27, quite scattered. Both DF27 and DF99 may have been in the thick of things when the great P312 expansion occurred.

    All road go back to central Europe.

    I guess it is also fair to say that U152 is scattered. The difference it doesn't have the same proportion of Atlantic/western content as some of these other subclades. That's probably why I think of it as more Alpine/North Italy biased.

    http://ytree.net/DisplayTree.php?blockID=186

    I would really love it if Z290 is examined in these ancient DNA studies. We could consider it pre-L21. Z290 has only two or three equivalents so its MRCA is also old. The problem is we have like no survey of Z290+ L21- folks at all. There is just the one. It appears the L21 MRCA was more of the colonial governor type born in route to the hinterlands of NW Europe. Z290 may be close to home.
    Last edited by Mikewww; 04-20-2017 at 05:54 PM.

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  10. #3827
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mikewww View Post
    ... All road go back to central Europe. ..
    I keep talking myself back and forth on this. It looks clear that all roads lead back to central Europe for P312.

    We may never have the survey of ancient DNA to uncover this but if we don't find ancient P312, DF99, U152 and DF27 DNA along the middle or lower Danube then one has to lean towards a P312 origin along the upper Danube in the Alpine regions, etc. or in the Hungarian Plains.

    That's perplexing because that makes it very hard to put U106 on the north side of the Carpathians early on in Corded Ware. There is just little time between the MRCAs of P311, U106 and P312... like almost none or more like decades rather than centuries. This does not work well with David Anthony's pre-Germanic route along the north side of the Carpathians. Maybe Anthony is all wet on this as Proto-Germanic may be too much of an amalgamation of language dialects for any one thing to be consider Pre-Germanic or that U106 is not the core carrier of Pre-Germanic dialects.
    Last edited by Mikewww; 04-20-2017 at 06:10 PM.

  11. #3828
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mikewww View Post
    . . .

    That's perplexing because that makes it very hard to put U106 on the north side of the Carpathians early on in Corded Ware. There is just little time between the MRCAs of P311, U106 and P312... like almost none or more like decades rather than centuries. This does not work well with David Anthony's pre-Germanic route along the north side of the Carpathians. Maybe Anthony is all wet on this as Proto-Germanic may be too much of an amalgamation of language dialects for any one thing to be consider Pre-Germanic or that U106 is not the core carrier of Pre-Germanic dialects.
    YFull has U106 with tmrca that is about 500 years older than that of P312. Maybe that's off, but I don't see why U106 could not stem from an L151 stream that went around the north side of the Carpathians onto the North European Plain, if U106 had not already arisen before that movement.

    P312 evidently stemmed from an L151 stream that went around the south side of the Carpathians and up the Danube Valley.

    I'm out of time again. See you all later.
     


    Hidden Content


    Y-DNA: R1b-FGC36982 (L21> DF13> Z39589> CTS2501> Z43690> Y8426> BY160> FGC36974>FGC36982)

    Additional Data:
    Lactase Persistent:
    rs4988235 AA (13910 TT)
    rs182549 TT (22018 AA)

    Red Hair Carrier:
    Arg160Trp+ (rs1805008 T) aka R160W

    Dad's mtDNA: K1a1

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  13. #3829
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mikewww View Post
    Let us set ZZ11 and Z40481 aside as counters for SNP based age estimates. YFull would not include them and I don't know if anyone would. I'm not saying they are useless as they indicate closeness in relationships between major subclades of P312, but let's not confuse age/generation estimates by including them.

    DF99 has only one equivalent so it's MRCA is quite old, in the same ballgame of U152's and DF27's MRCAs. U152 and DF27 have zero equivalents. We can hypothesize with some legitimacy that the MRCAs for P312, U152, DF27 and DF99 all lived within a few generations of each other. This means their origins could be close geographically.
    This logic, if that's the right term for it, depends on acceptance of the unproven hypothesis that mutations always occur sequentially (and have a statistically observable average "rate" for doing that).

    If mutations "at the same level" have happened in quick bursts -- or all at once, to one guy, who sat on a radioactive rock while eating his box lunch -- then having a bunch of equivalents for a particular level of the phylogenetic tree we now observe does not ipso facto relate to some calculable time gap since the last previous observed mutation on that branch of the said tree.

    As long as I'm here, being curmudgeonly, I might add that your recently favored meme "fusion/fission" is OK for some; but if one doesn't believe the reflux theory (translating a previously German version of "backwash" into Latin roots, for respectability), there isn't really any fusion observable in the topic of this forum thread (Bell Beakers, Gimbutas and R1b). It's all fission. Trees branch, the branches don't graft themselves back together. The fusion/fission model may be fine for linguistics, and several other anthropological interests, but it kind of gets in the way for genetics. Genetic fission in R1b lineages may well have occurred in populations whose movements occurred in multiple directions, but that doesn't make it fusion.

    That said, I think John T. Koch is actually right about several things. Some of the excesses of the "Celtic from the West" camp are not based on his linguistic work, and are not his fault.

  14. #3830
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    Quote Originally Posted by razyn View Post
    This logic, if that's the right term for it, depends on acceptance of the unproven hypothesis that mutations always occur sequentially (and have a statistically observable average "rate" for doing that).
    I agree that SNPs do not necessarily occur at the average rate. Given the coverage that we have of the Y chromosome for these old haplogroups, we should have one SNP every 3 generations and possibly even one per 2-2.5 generations. The average, which would be our centerpoint guess is that there are about 90 years between the P312 MRCA and the MRCAs for U152 and DF27. I have not seen any variance studies on this but if we say this period was a pause then we are 180 years or if it was a burst it may have been 30 years or less between the MRCAs. Perhaps we should be using a 25 year/gen for this ancient time so that would make it less.

    Likewise U106 has no equivalents so it should be about 90 (or 75) years younger than P311.

    If we simplify things we can say
    1) the distance from P311 MRCA to P312 MRCA is one SNP.
    2) The distance from the P311 MRCA to the U106 MRCA is one SNP.

    These two statements are not disputable. Essentially, as far as we can tell, P312 and U106 are of one and and the same age.

    Adamov has written a paper on SNP counting which is what YFull uses. There has been some intelligence applied to SNP age estimation. There is a problem that always pops up, adjusting at branch points as we know at an MRCA for any two brother branches, the age of the MRCA is only one number so bottoms-up SNP counting must be adjusted.

    At the risk of confusing everyone, I'll show YFull's challenge. This branch point adjustment appears to have no rational methodology for resolution (that I can see). Look at the YFull TMRCAs for the key subclades along with their SNP branch paths.

    4900 P311(branch L151)
    4900 P311>U106
    4700 P311>U106>Z381>Z301>L48
    4400 P311>P312
    4400 P311>P312>U152
    4400 P311>P312>DF27

    Do you see they have P311 and U106 at the same age? The mutation rate they used for U106 itself was 0 years whereas for P312 they use a mutation rate of one every 500 years.

    YFull also has the L48 MRCA as only 200 years younger than P311. There the mutation rate is one SNP every 50 years. How logical is that L48 is a distance of 4 SNPs from P311 but is older than P312 which is only a distance of one SNP from P311. It is possible but I would bet against it.

    It is all over the board so we should not be confused by looking at their estimates without understanding what is going. They are just choosing to let their "pile-up" of branch adjustments needed to jam up at these branch points.

    I personally think the problem is U106's YFull calculation is too biased by L48 and that is throwing them off as L48 must have had a "spurt" of SNPs that makes it look older than it is. You can argue either side, though. Someday we'll have simulation/analytics software give us a best fit. I think it'll look at the STRs and other mutations as well.

    Let's go back to the simple

    Whatever the mutation rate is, U106 and P312 are each just one SNP mutation younger than P311. Do we think that P311 happened in Moldova or eastern Romania and there was a long pause of SNPs while P311* or the first P312 held their breath and traveled at breakneck speed along most of the Danube and through the Iron Gates to the Hungarian Plains. This is why I said if we find ancient DNA DF99, U152 and DF27 along the middle or lower Danube that will be big.

    I don't know, but this is why I have a hard time putting U106 and P312 on (north vs south) opposite sides of the Carpathians, one in Danubian pre-Beaker kurganists and the other in Corded Wares kurganists. I think they were either both in or near Moldova or both in or near Hungary/Austria.
    Last edited by Mikewww; 04-20-2017 at 07:59 PM.

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